Following in the footsteps of crude oil, the plastics market continues to rise.

After nearly two months of silence, crude oil production continued to decline, and international oil prices continued to rise after a short-term decline. Since July, oil prices have basically recovered to their highs in the past six months. As the end product of the crude oil industry chain, the plastics industry has a certain lag in the transmission of crude oil prices, but it can be found through the Da Yi index that the trend of plastic raw materials in July is still basically consistent with crude oil prices, showing an overall upward trend.

According to the Dayi Index recently released by Dayi Yousu, the predicted value of PP Dayi Index in July is 745; LLDPE is 974; LDPE is 1145; HDPE is 672; ABS is 1500. Compared with the June Dayi Index, both have risen in different ranges. Among them, the predicted value of the ABS index has risen by 16.8%.

The Dayi Index is obtained by collating historical weekly price data, using an autoregressive model to predict the price of the next period, and taking the price of the first period of historical data as the benchmark price. The rise or fall of the Da Yi Index means that the market has entered a better or lower stage, and the market price of plastic raw materials will also rise or fall accordingly.

Regarding the rising factors in July, Da Yi Index analysts said that OPEC+ has implemented an unprecedented production reduction agreement, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE continue to reduce production excessively. Therefore, since the third quarter, the crude oil market as a whole is in a stage of recovery, and the plastic market price is supported. .

In addition, on July 15 local time, OPEC issued a statement stating that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce the scale of production to 7.7 million barrels per day from August. Boosted by regional politics, coupled with the influence of factors such as the slight reduction in operating rate, equipment shutdown and maintenance, and the decrease in production capacity, the overall macro-level multiple positive drivers are expected to maintain a steady increase in plastic prices in the future.

In general, the overall performance of the plastic raw material market in July was acceptable, with small increases in the market. "But it should be noted that global public health incidents continue to spread, the relationship between Europe and the United States and China is becoming increasingly tense, and the recovery of downstream demand is slow, and high risks still need to be avoided." Da Yi Index analyst pointed out.