According to feedback from some cotton companies and cotton-using companies, although the June/August shipping schedule in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places for 2019/20, Indian cotton M 1-1/8 and M 1-5/32 traders still quoted as high as 66-66.50. US cents/lb, 68.50-69 cents/lb, and the price difference between US cotton EMOT./MOT 1-1/8 and EMOT 31-3 36 in June/July is only 2-2.5 cents/lb, but due to CCI recently adjusted the benchmark price of Indian cotton sales and increased the discount rate, so that the domestic price and FOB price of Indian cotton continued to decline, and the competitiveness of Indian cotton was consolidated and improved.

According to industry analysis, on the one hand, the cotton purchased and stored by CCI is relatively high in grade and quality. Although the strong loss-making sell-off has suppressed the market of MCX and ICE futures, it also attracted a large number of buyers including China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and other buyers. On the other hand, 2019 /20 CCI’s cumulative purchase volume will reach 10 million bales (more than 30% of India’s annual cotton production), and the Indian government will implement the “current year’s rotation in the current year” without sufficient storage conditions and funds. In the new year, purchases will still be made at MSP prices, while domestic cotton consumption has plummeted and Indian cotton exports are not smooth, so CCI sales pressure from June to October is very prominent.
　　 So should I sign a contract to purchase Indian cotton? The author thinks that wait a moment, bargain hunting. First, the domestic epidemic in India has just detonated, and the impact on cotton consumption and cotton prices is difficult to end in the short term. The callback is still the main keynote; the second is that the cotton planting area in India will increase substantially in 2020. Driven by factors such as the upward adjustment of MSP and the arrival of the southwest monsoon, India’s current cotton planting area has increased by 24% year-on-year, and MCX futures are under pressure; third, even if CCI cuts prices sharply, it will complete nearly 1.7 million tons of cotton sales around October It is still very difficult; fourth, the recent border tensions between China and India have caused repeated physical clashes, which have triggered strong public opinions in the two countries, or have an impact on trade, exchanges, and transportation.

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