Recently, international oil prices have risen significantly. As of the close of August 18, the New York Mercantile Exchange closed the September light crude oil futures at a monthly price of $42.89, a new high since the beginning of March. Compared with the lowest price since the opening period of $6.5/barrel, an increase of nearly 560%.

Affected by the price of crude oil, close to the golden nine and silver ten, the plasticized raw material products in the petrochemical industry chain are also rising gradually, and the extent is relatively large. In terms of chemical raw materials, on August 17, the quotations of TDI and polymeric MDI both increased by more than 20% year-on-year. In the same period, the price of polysilicon was 64,333.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.86%.

倠氀愀猀琀椀挀 raw materials were also stimulated by the good news, ushering in a phased rebound trend. According to the Dayi Plastic Index (hereinafter referred to as the "Dayi Index"), the PE and PP markets, which were still weak in the first half of August, rebounded in the middle to late August. The price of ABS was brighter than last month, with a maximum increase of 1,230 yuan, and the forecast value of the Great Yi Index in August was 1396. PS high-end change to benzene rose 1486 yuan in South China; LDPE rose 714 yuan in South China. Da Yi Index analysts said that if crude oil prices continue to rise at a high profile, possible related closures or non-quotations in the second half of the year will further increase.

The Dayi Index is obtained by collating historical weekly price data, using an autoregressive model to predict the price of the next period, and taking the price of the first period of historical data as the benchmark price. The Big Yi Index analyzes and compares the plastic raw material market from multiple dimensions such as domestic and international markets, basis, cost, output, operating rate, and inventory, so as to determine the market direction.

It is worth noting that in addition to the impact of crude oil prices, supply and demand factors cannot be ignored. According to the statistics of Da Yi Index, the PP market is in a stage of turning for the better in August, and the overall trend of polypropylene will be strong. The increase rate is expected to be 200-300 yuan/ton. Taking the East China market as an example, the mainstream quotation of wire drawing is 7800-8000 yuan / tonne.

传渀 the supply side, the overhaul season is about to end, and the amount of overhaul losses will be reduced by more than half next month, but there is uncertainty about the delay of new production capacity; on the demand side, foreign trade orders have recovered when the epidemic situation in some foreign regions is under control. Generally speaking, in August, the fundamental supply and demand of polypropylene are loose, or there may still be a small amount of oversupply, but the demand is large enough to accept, so the market outlook may experience high fluctuations.

匠椀洀椀氀愀爀氀礀, the boom in supply and demand is also the main factor contributing to the outstanding performance of ABS. On the supply side, domestic ABS production in July was 345,800 tons, an increase of 9800 tons from the previous month, or 2.92%; the import volume was 196,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous month. Although the planned output of air conditioners has decreased on the demand side, the planned output of refrigerators has increased, coupled with the increase in export orders and the restocking stage of home appliance companies, it is not uncommon for mainstream domestic ABS manufacturers to operate at full capacity.

唠渀搀攀爀 the moderate matching between the supply and demand sides, the ABS market is full of confidence in the near future, and price increases are a matter of course. "However, we must be alert to the increase in the supply side. The Zhenjiang Chimei, Tianjin Dagu, and Shandong Haijiang installations all returned to normal and increased their load in July. I have not heard that any manufacturers have plans to stop the installation. It is expected that the installation load of ABS manufacturers will remain high from August to September. , ABS production is also at a high level." Da Yi Index analyst said.